Modeling a full on gas for Germany, worst case scenario, with 5 industry sectors coming to a full stop over night, results in a reduction of GDP of around 3%. Tough, but manageable. We had a pandemic drop of 4% and are still here. Source: various research. 1/2

@jwildeboer Do they take into account the tax loss from their workers and the unemployment benefits the government should spend? Also the energy price raises? Just curious, I wish we could just unplug that thing, and the rest of fossils for that matter.

@tagomago Yes. They take that into account. Also impact of rising inflation and possible drop in demand etc.

@jwildeboer Then that's totally doable. I imagined a much darker picture. Time to divest from fossil empires right now.

@tagomago @jwildeboer plus the long term impact of accelerating the transition to renewables is likely positive, right? Unlike, cough, Brexit

@michel_slm @jwildeboer Of course, one must sow in order to harvest. Short-sighted stances must go out the window. So sick of it all.

@tagomago @michel_slm Which is why I have embraced patience and stubbornness as my personal superpower ;) Compared to 20 years ago, many things have already changed towards the better side. This will continue. Temporary setbacks won’t change the direction we’re collectively taking.

@jwildeboer @tagomago yeah. It's a race and let's just hope the transition wins. We can only change our personal lifestyles and advocate for greener policies, no point losing sleep after that

@michel_slm @jwildeboer Thank you both, I certainly need to internalize that mindset...

Partial Image description: An infographic-style layout of four estimates for economic impact (on GDP?) on Germany of a gas embargo, ranging from -0.5% to -6%.

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